 As a former lecturer, I've watched this play out from the front of the lecture hall. In 2018, I was part of a team teaching roughly 1,400 first-year Education students. In 2019, I coordinated the second-year level of that same module and found only about 1,079 students still there. That's a 77% retention rate, in a cohort where every single student needed that subject to qualify as a teacher. The other 23% didn't just lose a year. Many lost a career direction entirely. The bigger picture My experience isn't an outlier, if anything, it's on the better end of the spectrum nationally. Estimates of South Africa's first-year dropout rate vary widely depending on the data source and methodology, but the trend is consistently concerning. The Council on Higher Education's widely cited figure puts dropout before degree completion at over 40% (Three Streams Media, 2024), while student loan provider Fundi's own 2024 research put the first-year dropout rate as high as 60% (BusinessTech, 2024). In January 2026, Gauteng Education MEC Matome Chiloane cited a 35% first-year dropout figure (News24, 2026), and a 2025 piece featuring The IIE's Varsity College, now Emeris, placed the range at 50–60% (Future SA, 2025). Research from North-West University comparing 2004 and 2020 data found that roughly one in three university students, and one in two Technikon/TVET students, were predicted not to complete their studies (Future SA, 2024). The pattern has not meaningfully improved in two decades.  Why students leave The reasons are remarkably consistent across studies, then and now:
What actually helps 1. Use free information and career guidance, before you commit. Many universities offer career guidance through student support services, though quality varies significantly between institutions. Start there, and supplement it with independent guidance. I've written separately about developing your teenager's career curiosity and the main things to consider when helping your teenager choose a career, both useful starting points if you're navigating this decision for yourself or your child. 2. Use the support that already exists. In 2018, I appointed two tutors for over 1,000 students, fully briefed on exactly what assessments required. Only 10 students booked an appointment. The resources are usually there; the habit of asking isn't. Speak to lecturers during or after class. If you don't get help, use your university's formal complaints process. Use free resources like Khan Academy, or ask your library for past exam papers.  The real fix happens before enrolment Universities can improve support, and students can use what's on offer, but the single biggest point of leverage is getting the course choice right in the first place, ideally well before Grade 12. That's not a guess; it's a structured process of matching interests, aptitude, and realistic career outcomes to a specific qualification. That's exactly what a career assessment is for. If you or your teenager are unsure about the path ahead, get this decision tested before you commit three (or more) years and a significant amount of money to it. Reach out for a career assessment, it's far cheaper than a dropped-out first year. References
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